Garry Goldenam 21. Februar 2008 17:25| Du hast diesen Kommentar gemeldet.
I admire the effort and complexities in thinking through solutions. Yet feel this is another example of a non-auto industry group promoting an inappropriate short-sighted solution out as a viable alternative. Yes, 'electric' is the future. 'Electric motors' are to replace the combustion engine. But what powers that electric motor (likely wheel based) is more complicated than using batteries and 'plugging in'. Cars are not iPods and batteries alone cannot work as a scalable solution for the transportation sector. The long term reality is that electric motors will be powered by a combination of batteries, fuel cells and capacitors - each providing their special flavor of performance to the mix. Not one will rule them all. But a collaboration of electrochemical systems - dominated by the fuel cell.
I know that H2 fuell cells are in the 'disillusionment' phase of hype cycle development. Eco bloggers and new greentech entrepreneurs love to bash them as 'decades away' and spread short-sighted insights about feasibility (h2 takes too much energy to produce; storage, et al) . But the reality is that the auto industry is pushing forward around H2 fuel cells as the main propulsion system for electric motors. Yes, they are placing bets on batteries, but not as the main power source of electrons.
And plugging in is vastly overstated. No auto industry maker (even Toyota) believes customers 'can' or 'want' to plug in. How many people park within 15 feet of an appropriate plug? What about Asia's plug in infrastructure? Urban markets? Swapping out battery packs?! Yes, great model. I love it. And I love it more, when that packet is solid state hydrogen. Keep the fuel and oxidant separate and you really get the right energy density. I love the swap out idea- but it makes more sense to be use H2 and fuel cells rather than batteries.
We can disagree over short-term vs long-term impacts- but the reality is that the auto industry will change slowly. And we should not only focus on the 'best immediate solution' b/c there is no best immediate solution. This is a major transition. H2 fuel cells are evolving - membrane costs (75% of unit) are dropping around nanoscale designed structures and non-noble metal catalysts. Cataysts and bio-based solutions for low cost H2 production is also moving along despite the cries of eco bloggers. This is a materials science challenge with plenty of fundamental scientific breakthroughs waiting to happen. We must recognize the limits of battery technologies and the myth that 'plugging in' to a grid is a feasible solution to vehicle fleets. We can have a much more robust distributed (packet based) system of refueling around hydrogen.
Again, I applaud the effort. But think if we had a longer term solution that was more appropriate to the transportation sector- we recognize the shared role of batteries, fuel cells and capacitors. Garry www.garrygolden.net
Kommentare für DLD08 - Day 3 - Green transportation (1)
I know that H2 fuell cells are in the 'disillusionment' phase of hype cycle development. Eco bloggers and new greentech entrepreneurs love to bash them as 'decades away' and spread short-sighted insights about feasibility (h2 takes too much energy to produce; storage, et al) . But the reality is that the auto industry is pushing forward around H2 fuel cells as the main propulsion system for electric motors. Yes, they are placing bets on batteries, but not as the main power source of electrons.
And plugging in is vastly overstated. No auto industry maker (even Toyota) believes customers 'can' or 'want' to plug in. How many people park within 15 feet of an appropriate plug? What about Asia's plug in infrastructure? Urban markets? Swapping out battery packs?! Yes, great model. I love it. And I love it more, when that packet is solid state hydrogen. Keep the fuel and oxidant separate and you really get the right energy density. I love the swap out idea- but it makes more sense to be use H2 and fuel cells rather than batteries.
We can disagree over short-term vs long-term impacts- but the reality is that the auto industry will change slowly. And we should not only focus on the 'best immediate solution' b/c there is no best immediate solution. This is a major transition. H2 fuel cells are evolving - membrane costs (75% of unit) are dropping around nanoscale designed structures and non-noble metal catalysts. Cataysts and bio-based solutions for low cost H2 production is also moving along despite the cries of eco bloggers. This is a materials science challenge with plenty of fundamental scientific breakthroughs waiting to happen. We must recognize the limits of battery technologies and the myth that 'plugging in' to a grid is a feasible solution to vehicle fleets. We can have a much more robust distributed (packet based) system of refueling around hydrogen.
Again, I applaud the effort. But think if we had a longer term solution that was more appropriate to the transportation sector- we recognize the shared role of batteries, fuel cells and capacitors. Garry
www.garrygolden.net